Studies Examine Variant Surging in California, and the News Isn’t Good

Type one first Discovered in california In December is more contagious than earlier forms of coronovirus, two new studies have shown that such emerging mutants may prevent a sharp decline in cases in the state, and perhaps elsewhere, from fuel scarcity.

In one of the new studies, researchers found that this version has spread rapidly in a neighborhood in San Francisco over the past few months. The second report confirmed that the variant has increased throughout the state, and it has been discovered that it produces twice as many viral particles inside a person’s body as other variants do. That study also indicated that the vaccine may be better than others in developing the immune system – and vaccines.

“I wish I had better news to give you – that version is not important at all,” said Dr., a virologist at the University of California, San Francisco. Charles Chiu said. “But unfortunately, we just follow science.”

Neither study has yet been published in a scientific journal. And experts don’t know how much of a threat to public health it is compared to others spreading in California.

A version called B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States from Britain, where it quickly became the dominant form of the virus and overload hospitals there. Studies in the British medical records show that B.1.1.7 is not only more variable, but more deadly than earlier variants.

Some experts stated that the new version was mentioned in California, but was unlikely to cause much burden as of B.1.1.7.

An epidemiologist at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, who was not involved in the research, said, “I am convinced that it is more locally circulating than others.” “But there is no evidence to suggest that it is in the same ballpark as B.1.1.7.”

Dr. Chiu stumbled into the new version by accident first. In December, he and other California researchers were concerned about the discovery of B.1.1.7 in Britain. They started looking at their samples from positive coronavirus tests in California, sequencing the viral genome to see if B.1.1.7 came to their state.

On New Year’s Eve, Drs. Chiu was shocked to find a previously unknown version that had made up one-quarter of the samples he and his colleagues had collected. “I thought he was crazy,” he said.

It was discovered that researchers at Cedar-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles had made a separate discovery Same version is growing At a high level in Southern California. Dr. Chiu announced her Initial search, And the Cedar-Sinai team went public Two days later.

Since then, researchers have been looking more closely at the new version, known as B.1.427 / B.1.429, to pinpoint its origin and track its spread. It has so far appeared in 45 states, and in many other countries including Australia, Denmark, Mexico and Taiwan. But it is still closed only in California.

It was not clear at first whether the version was inherently more permeable than the others, or whether it grew in California as gatherings became superseding events.

“Just by random chance, a poor marriage or choir practice can create a large frequency difference,” said Joe Dercie, co-president of Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, which is investigating the spread of variants.

In a new study that will soon be posted online, Drs. Chiu and his colleagues analyzed 2,172 virus samples collected from across the state between September and January. In early September, researchers found no signs of B.1.427 / B.1.429. But by the end of January, it had become the flagship version in California. Dr. Chiu and his colleagues estimate that cases caused by the variant are now doubling every 18 days.

Reviewing medical records on 308 cases of Kovid-19 in San Francisco, Drs. Chiu and his colleagues found that a larger percentage of people died than others from the new variants. But this result can be a statistical shock: there were only 12 deaths in the group, so the difference in deaths from one subgroup to another may not be in a larger sample.

Researchers also conducted experiments in the laboratory to search for evidence that the new version had a biological edge. In one study, they showed that it was at least 40 percent more effective than infecting human cells, which were the earlier variants. And when they measured the genetic material found on the swab used for coronovirus tests, researchers found that people infected with the variant produce twice as much viral load than other variants.

The study has also found that the new version can improve the immune system compared to other variants. Antibodies to people recovering from infections from other variants were less effective in blocking the new variant in the laboratory. The same was true when researchers used blood serum Those who were vaccinated.

Nevertheless, the effect of the variant on immunity is much less because of a variant of South Africa called B.1.351. Dr. Chiu said that it is unclear whether the vaccines in use would be less effective than B.1.427 / B.1.429.

“If we can get enough people vaccinated, then we will be able to deal with these variants, because we won’t have continuous transmission,” he said.

In a separate study that has not yet been published, Drs. Derry and his colleagues pondered over how the version Mission spread to districtMainly Latino neighborhoods in San Francisco.

Looking at the samples from the end of November, the researchers found that 16 percent of the coronaviruses were B.1.427 / B.1.429. As of January, after 630 genome sequencing, they found it to be 53 percent.

Researchers also studied the spread of this variant and others in 326 households. They found that if someone had a B.1.427 / B.1.429 in their home, people had a 35 percent chance of getting infected. If the person was infected with some other form, the rate was only 26 percent.

“What we see is a minor, but meaningful, difference,” Dr. Darisi said.

Dr. Cheu said the San Francisco study offered a microcosm of how it spread throughout the state. “The data they have from the Mission District really supports our data, and vice versa,” he said.

But Harvard’s Dr. Haines is not sure that the variants are at great risk. Every time B.1.1.7 has shown up in a new country, it has exploded quickly. In contrast, the variant discovered in California has gradually gained dominance.

Dr. Chui and his co-workers were able to guess when B1.72 from / B.1.2929 originated by comparing the mutations that have originated in the virus as they split from their common ancestor. This analysis points towards late spring. If true, this means that this variant was at an extremely low level in California for perhaps four months or longer.

“It’s not as big a deal as the others,” Dr. Hange said. He speculates that if scientists sequence more coronovirus genomes at other locations, they will find more of these fast-spreading mutants. “The variants may be everywhere, and we are just seeing them in places where sequencing is happening,” he said.

We can soon get some new insights on how to take these emerging variants seriously. B.1.1.7 arrived in California around the beginning of December, and although it is doubling every 12 days, it is still about 2 percent of coronavirus in the state.

Now California is going to be a kind of viral cage match between the two types. “I doubt B.1.1.7 will win out,” Dr. Hanage said.

However, Dr. Chiu feels that it is possible that B.1.427 / B.1.429 suppresses the newcomer and dominates the kingdom.

“We’ll find out in the next two weeks,” he said.

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