LONDON – Coronovirus variants found for the first time in Britain by British government scientists are deadlier than the original virus, a devastating trend that highlights the serious risks of this new phase of the epidemic.
Scientist Said last month That there was a “realistic possibility” that the version was more deadly. now they Put in a new document It is “likely” that the variant is associated with increased risk of hospitalization and death.
The British government did not publicly announce the updated findings, which are based on two studies, almost as prior assessments, and the new version involving more deaths from Kovid-19 cases, referred to as B.1.1.7 Is known in this The document was posted on a government website on Friday And said it was supposed to be in the meeting of advisors to the government a day earlier.
Is variant Known in 82 countries, Including the United States. scientific American It was recently estimated that it was spreading rapidly there, Has doubled approximately every 10 days, and has said that it may be the dominant version of the virus in the United States by March.
Simon Clarke, Associate Professor of Cellular Microbiology at Reading University, said “calculating that when we can lift the ban, it has to be affected”. “This provides additional evidence that this version is more lethal than it was dealt with last time.”
Most Kovid-19 cases, even due to the new version, are not fatal. And government scientists were relying on studies that investigated a small proportion of overall deaths, making it difficult to indicate how much greater risk may be associated with the new version.
The data also includes several unavoidable limitations, including the fact that whether or not variant cases are occurring in nursing homes is difficult to control. Government scientists said that the most powerful studies require more data on deaths, before they can more effectively examine the effects of the variant.
But the strongest study by government scientists estimated that this version could be 30 to 70 percent more deadly than the original virus.
And additional evidence, he wrote, allowed for “increased severity of illness” with a “growing association of new form”.
The variant is believed to be 30 to 50 percent more transmitted than the original virus, although some scientists believe it to be even more contagious. Its first specimen was collected in southeastern England in September, and it quickly became the dominant version of the virus in Britain. It now accounts for over 90 percent of cases in many parts of the country.
As it spread, Hospital overwhelmed At the pace of new infections, doctors and nurses treated twice as many hospitalized patients as they had during the previous year. Since then the number of new coronovirus cases in Britain has decreased drastically.
Government scientists cited a study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, as an example of increasing evidence of the lethargy of the variant. In January, that study examined 2,583 deaths, of which 384 believed that the new version was due to Kovid-19 cases. Research has estimated that the risk of dying was 35 percent higher among those infected with the new variant.
An updated study by the same group relied on 3,382 deaths, of which 1,722 were attributed to the new version. That study suggested that variants may be associated with a 71 percent greater risk of dying.
Professor Clarke said the new findings quashed the British government’s decision to raise alarm about the version in December and then published evidence last month that it was potentially more fatal. Some outside scientists initially rejected the warning.
“They didn’t take the data back,” Professor Clarke said. “They were very uncertain how uncertain things were.”